Could get interesting next week!

6-13-24. 2:45pm. This Tropical Update is brought to you by Jack Garrett and Phase II Fertilizer. Phase II, Inc. was founded in 1994 with a mission to Help Family Farmers & Ranchers Thrive. You can reach Jack at 361-275-4841.

Odds are improving that we could have a "tropical something" in the SW Gulf over the next seven days. More than likely, this system will end up in Mexico, but the further north it goes and the bigger the circulation, we could see some hefty rain totals for the LRGV, south Texas and the coastal plains. Still lots of "ifs ands and sore butts!"

Below are the latest model runs for rain from this potential storm...this far out, take them with a grain of salt and a shot of tequila!

From our SA-Austin NWS: "The National Hurricane Center has increased to a medium (40%) chance of a tropical cyclone developing in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next seven days.

Here are the key messages for South Central Texas...

A broad area of low pressure may develop in the Bay of Campeche late in the weekend or early next week.

Environmental conditions will be conducive for slow development early next week while this system moves west or west-northwest.

Models are showing an increase in tropical moisture associated with this area possibly affecting coastal areas of Texas and possibly areas of South-Central Texas (mainly the coastal plains and Rio Grande plains) early next week. It is still too early to tell exact rainfall amounts.

Don't key on individual model runs that people will be posting on social media. This far out weather models change quickly and are inconsistent when a system hasn't formed yet."