The models should be flushed down the toilet this week!

12-6-24. 3:30pm. This Update is brought to you by Bahia Services and Rentals in Port O'Connor, TX https://www.facebook.com/BahiaServicesandRentals

Despite AI, robotaxis and other technological wonders, as we have seen this week, we cannot trust weather models even within 3 days of an event! I’m blown away at how positive this rain event looked earlier this week and now it looks like it could essentially be a “poof” event! While there are a few showers on the radar this afternoon, if you find a quarter of an inch in your gauge by Sunday, consider yourself a rain lottery winner. Reading over the latest NWS discussion, it appears that our front that moved through yesterday was more powerful than forecast and its deep high pressure has not allowed for much overriding moisture from the SW, which was the key to us seeing some decent rain totals. Our best rain odds will be tonight and Saturday, so I’m not giving up yet.

As advertised, it will be a chilly next 24 hours with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 50’s. The sun returns on “Sunday” afternoon and by Monday we will see some 80’s (and possible record highs) ahead of the coldest air of the season, due to arrive on Tuesday. Look for some widespread freezes and frosts, especially in south-central Texas on Wednesday and Thursday morning.

Looks like our next “chance” for rain will arrive around the 18th…we shall see!

Mark