Tropical Update…
6-27-24. 2:15pm. This Update is brought to you by Dietz-McLean Optical. www.dmoptical.com
Another day, another day of heat advisories across our area as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 90's and dew points continue in the 70's. Look for head indexes of 105-110 for much of south-central and south Texas, with a few locations going over 110. Saran wrap weather continues!
As for the tropics, the first tropical disturbance (94L) looks more and more unlikely to become a cyclone before it ends up in Mexico on Sunday. While the LRGV and far south Texas may see some rain from this system, the rest of us will only see a tiny chance for some PM Poppers on Sunday afternoon.
Speaking of Sunday, a cloud of Saharan dust will invade south and south-central Texas late in the day and continue through Tuesday of next week. The worst day will be Monday.
Now let's talk about disturbance (95L), way out in the Atlantic. As I mentioned yesterday, this area has historically been a good track for sending hurricanes into the Gulf. With that said, we are 7-10 days away from that potentially happening. 95L now has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical something in the next week and certainly bears watching. As soon as it becomes a potential cyclone, the NHC will start posting its forecast path. Until then, we only have some spaghetti model plots, which should certainly be taken with a grain of salt and at least two shots of Tequila! Beware of other weather Facebook pages that post 10-day model runs with a hurricane hitting Texas! As of today, the most likely track for this potential storm is to our south, due to high pressure over us...however, if the high weakens or moves east, anything is possible.
Here is the latest on 95L from the NHC: "Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95): A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive, and development of this system is anticipated. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form this weekend several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
This Update is brought to you by Dietz-McLean Optical. www.dmoptical.com
Current heat advisories.
2pm heat index readings. Saran wrap weather!
Where the latest model runs think 94L will go over the next couple of days.
A thick cloud of Saharan dust starts moving into our area on Sunday and will last at least through Tuesday.
Disturbance 95L looks likely to become a tropical something over the next week.
Spaghetti model runs for 95L. Please take these with a grain of salt and two shots of Tequila! We are 10 days out and this will very certainly change.
Spaghetti model runs for 95L. Please take these with a grain of salt and two shots of Tequila! We are 10 days out and this will very certainly change.
7day rainfall forecast from the NWS.
