The latest update on Tropical Cyclone #1

6-18-24. 4:15pm. This Tropical Outlook is brought to you by Davy Ranch Supply in Yorktown, TX. davyranchsupply.com

Our tropical cyclone #1 doesn't seem to want to turn into Alberto! The latest update shows it still hasn't gotten its act together as the latest NHC discusses: "Air Force Reserve and scatterometer data show that the disturbance consists of a large northwest-to-southeast-oriented circulation with a 150-250-n mi wide area of light winds and a broad minimum in pressure. The scatterometer data also revealed that the strongest winds--30 to 35 kt--are located about 360 n mi north of the estimated center. With the continued lack of a well-defined center and little central convection, the system is still being designated as a potential tropical cyclone at this time.

Based on past storms, this info could actually be a good thing. As storms strengthen, they tend to draw moisture and storm energy into the center. I'm hoping this allows rain to move further north than some of the models have been forecasting today. As this point it's like trying to determine who is going to win a sporting match...no matter what info you have, you just don't know what the outcome will be until it actually occurs.

So, below are the latest updates and model runs. I'm publishing state model runs to show the big picture. Best odds for rain will be from Wednesday through Thursday. The counties are noted on the graphics so as long as you know where you are in your county, you should be able to see what that model is forecasting for rain. If you can't get the images to enlarge, please go to my website for a better visual experience!

On an unrelated note, please send out prayers for the poor folks in Ruidoso, NM. Two fires threaten to burn the entire town of almost 8000 people. Hopefully some of the moisture from this storm will move into the SW and give them some much needed rain to stop the fires before they make it into town.

Mark