The latest on Beryl and my thoughts…

7-2-24. 6pm. This Tropical Update is brought to you by Jack Garrett and Phase II Fertilizer. Phase II, Inc. was founded in 1994 with a mission to Help Family Farmers & Ranchers Thrive. You can reach Jack at 361-275-4841.

I've held off a bit, waiting for some latest greatest model runs to appear. As of this post, there are a few thoughts roaming around in my brain. One is that because it is early July, there will be a chance that if Beryl does move into Texas, (still no guarantee) it won't be moving very fast and could possibly stall, due to a trough that will be located to our NE. If so, we could see a boat load of rain from the storm. The latest GFS run is now forecasting that in its 18z run. Don't build an ark yet, as this is only one run and may change by tomorrow!

Another concern I have is shared with many of you...with the Gulf waters being so warm, could Beryl grow quickly again after it crosses the Yucatan and become a Cat 2-4 storm? It's not impossible and yet another reason we have to keep watching this storm closely as it exits the Yucatan. I'm not trying to scare anyone, but this far out, anything is still possible.

Fortunately, we pay the folks at the NHC to figure all of this out and I'm sure a lot of them are as concerned as I am! Here is what they said in the last discussion: "There remains considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, although there is somewhat better agreement that the cyclone will intensify some while crossing the Gulf. The new forecast follows this trend and lies near the middle of the spread-out intensity guidance.”