Odds for a Texas impact from Beryl increasing.

7-2-24. 1:30pm. This Tropical Update is brought to you by Bahia Services and Rentals in Port O'Connor, TX https://www.facebook.com/BahiaServicesandRentals

Burly Beryl has slightly lost some strength today, dropping from a Cat 5 hurricane to a Cat 4...still a super strong storm! I think the NHC sums up how challenging it is going to be to determine where it eventually goes and how strong it will be. "There
is considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, partly due to uncertainties as to how long the storm will remain over water and partly due to uncertainties in how the cyclone will interact with an upper-level trough to the west. This part of the forecast lies in the middle of the spread-out intensity guidance."

The latest tracking info shows an incredibly large "Cone of Uncertainty", but with every run, the odds of this storm hitting Texas is increasing. As of today, if it does hit us, it is likely to only be a tropical storm or a weak hurricane. Please don't get scared over some images that are being shown around social media!

The big thing to watch is how powerful it is when it moves into the Yucatan Peninsula, how far north it strikes and how powerful it is when it re-emerges back into the Gulf.

I'll have another update later this afternoon.

Mark