Rain odds from Beryl are increasing…

7-3-24. 1:45pm. This Tropical Update is brought to you by 5E Trailers in Marion. They’re here to help you find the perfect trailer at the best price! https://www.5etrailers.com/

Despite it losing its eye, Burly Beryl is having no problem keeping its sustained winds at 140mph as it moves WNW, just to the south of Jamaica. Next stop will be just to the south of Playa del Carmen and Cozumel. Being on the NE side of the storm, I can assure you that people in that area are hoping Beryl weakens before they have to deal with her!

While the models are certainly still divided on where Beryl ends up making landfall and moving afterward, most are getting more and more bullish on rainfall for south and south-central Texas. As I have mentioned before, the best-case scenario for drought relieving rainfall would be for Beryl to weaken to a tropical storm, make landfall near Brownsville, then travel NW along the Rio Grande. Whether Beryl gets my memo is still to be decided!

Right now, there are several possibilities for Beryl's future. The first thing we need to see is how powerful Beryl ends up when moving through the Yucatan...if it remains a hurricane, then the odds of Beryl becoming another Cat 2 or 3 in the Gulf are possible. If it gets beaten up and re-emerges in the Gulf as a weak tropical storm, then the odds of it growing into a major storm again are lower.

Another thing to watch is the possibility that the high pressure over us gets pushed further east than forecast. A trough over the weekend will make a big difference where the ridge moves. Too far west and the storm moves into Mexico and tracks west, not giving us much rain. Too far east and the storm will make a dramatic turn to the north and east, sending most of the heavier rain to our east, where it is not needed!

Mark