The latest greatest on Beryl!

7-3-24. 5:45pm. This Tropical Update is brought to you by Davy Ranch Supply in Yorktown, TX. davyranchsupply.com

At 5pm, Beryl's winds are still at 140 mph and it looks like it is trying to replace its eye.

The 5pm Beryl tracking update is starting to look like the latest GFS model run, with the storm going in south of Brownsville, then heading NW. This would certainly help the drought areas of south-central Texas but have the potential for way too much rain in south Texas! Again, we are still 4-5 days out and there are a lot of things that could change.

Here is what the NHC is saying about Beryl's future: "Beryl should continue to experience some westerly shear for the next 24 h, and the ECMWF forecasts moderate shear to persist until
the hurricane makes landfall in Yucatan. This portion of the intensity forecast calls for weakening as shown by the guidance. However, given that Beryl seems reluctant to weaken, the forecast is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The cyclone should weaken to a tropical storm while crossing Yucatan. The intensity guidance has become less enthusiastic about the potential for Beryl to re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the model forecast upper-level winds seem generally favorable, and based on this the intensity forecast continues to call for Beryl to re-gain hurricane strength over the Gulf."

I've thrown in latest model updates for those that have done so and included some bonus material like ocean water temperatures and anomalies.

We will see what happens tonight!

Mark