Late spring and summer forecast!
4-15-24. 4:45pm. This long-range forecast is brought to you by Motor Carrier Safety Solutions in Laredo, TX. www.mcssinc.com
As with any long-range forecast, take this one with a grain of salt and a shot of Tequila…especially since it’s my forecast! Also, remember to view my predictions as entertainment more than what may or may not happen! Please don’t go out and buy cattle, plant non irrigated crops, etc. based on what you see below.
Now that I have a website and it’s easy to post long-range forecasts for everyone to view and critique without having to scroll down endless Facebook posts, I’ve decided to do one for the rest of spring and this summer.
Here we go! Based on several factors…current long-range models, sea temperatures and a transition from El Niño to La Niña within the next couple of months, here is what I am forecasting:
I see above normal rainfall for most of south-central Texas and near normal rainfall for south Texas for the rest of April and May. With El Niño still around, the subtropical jet stream will continue to be active, sending us disturbances from the west. As we move into May, the disturbances will grow fewer, but with the Gulf being warmer than average, more moisture will be available for storms and rain train events along stationary fronts.
As we head into June, I still think we will see an active pattern for the first half of the month, then less activity later in the month. I predict at least a couple of early tropical storms to form in the Atlantic or Gulf due to the continued above normal Atlantic and Gulf temperatures. Tropical storms are random, so Texas could or could not be impacted. July will most likely be fairly dry as most July’s are, but by August, as the Gulf and Atlantic get active, I think we will see a good chance for some tropically generated rain for south and south-central Texas.
I predict a very active Atlantic hurricane season this year, with above normal storms. This will be due to transitioning into La Niña (which produces more storms due to lack of wind shear) and the fact that the Gulf and Atlantic will continue to see above normal ocean temperatures. Hopefully, Texas will just see disturbances and weak tropical storms, but I would not be surprised to see at least a few CAT4 hurricanes and possibly a CAT5. As always, just because big storms form, does not mean they will hit Texas.
I predict normal to slightly above normal temperatures this summer. As of this post time, I do not see a repeat of last summer’s horrifically hot temperatures. If we get the rain that I am predicting in late April-early June, that will moisten soils and lower high temperatures during the day. The downside is that it will be more humid! This does not mean we won’t see a week or two of 100 degree plus weather, though…we are in southern Texas!
So, all in all, I continue to be optimistic that the drought will be eroded, if not erased this year.
Mark
This long-range forecast is brought to you by Motor Carrier Safety Solutions in Laredo, TX. www.mcssinc.com
We are forecast to transition into a La Niña pattern by this summer.
Gulf and Carribean sea surface temperatures continue to run above normal.
Atlantic sea surface temperatures continue to run above normal.
