My late fall and winter forecast for south and south-central Texas!

10-10-24. 4pm. This Winter 2024-25 Forecast is brought to you by 5E Trailers in Marion. They’re here to help you find the perfect trailer at the best price! https://www.5etrailers.com/

No changes in the near forecast over the past 24hrs.

Despite temperatures in the 90's, It's time again for me gaze into my dusty weather crystal ball and make a forecast for this upcoming late fall and winter!

As we begin, let's review a few items:

1. La Niña is a pool of colder than normal water that forms around the Pacific Equator to the west of South America every few years, just like the opposite El Niño, which is warmer than normal water temperatures along the Pacific Equator to the west of South America.

2. As of today, we are still in a neutral pattern, but the latest ENSO report says, "La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025." See chart below.

3. As seen in the chart below, La Niña's typically mean a warm and dry weather pattern for south and south-central Texas.

Knowing this, it is typical for NOAA to go out and predict a winter that is right in line with normal La Niña's and as you can see below, the CPC (NOAA) has published their bold and daring forecast for this winter, which is warm and dry!

As some of you saw from my winter forecast for where I live in CO, I'm not totally buying into a rubberstamp La Niña pattern and in fact, am predicting a snowy winter in Pagosa Springs, CO.

Same goes for Texas! No, not a snowy winter, but one that could have a few surprises up its sleeves!

First of all, let's go with precipitation...looking through a few of the weaker La Niña's, while most are average to below average for precipitation, because of warmer than average temperatures, you can get some hefty thunderstorms in months that you normally don't, so a spring-like cold front in December can quickly change an average from dry to wet for the month. As we can see in the Sea Surface Anomaly Chart below, even though ocean temperatures are cooling around the equator, most of the northern Pacific is still running above normal. As we have also unfortunately seen, Gulf temperatures are also above normal and partially responsible the last two powerful hurricanes that have terrorized Florida and the SE. Any upper-level low that draws in moisture ahead of a cold front from the Gulf will continue to have a lot of energy to work with, potentially sparking some severe storms in November or December.

With that in mind, I am calling for average precipitation from November-March, but there could be some areas that fall below average and some above average, especially if we see some active thunderstorm events. As we know from the past, convective systems are not equal, so there will not be an equal amount of rain when these events occur.

Now let's discuss temperatures. With the way October has treated us, it would be easy to say that we will have almost no winter this season! While I am predicting a milder than normal winter overall, I think we will have a good chance for seeing 1-2 Polar Vortex events, or as I prefer to call them, "Arctic Outbreaks". And why am I forecasting a couple of strong shots of arctic air when I just said that we would have a mild winter? Because, when you take two or even three weeks of very much below temperatures and average them with mostly above or normal temperatures, you still get a mild winter.

Looking at some of our most memorable and record setting "Artic Outbreaks" in the past, all of them occurred during either a La Niña or a transitional La Niña pattern. I have circled these outbreaks on a NOAA La Niña-El Nino chart below since 1980. These include Dec. 1983, January 1985, December 1989 and of course, our February blast of 2021. While the weather in the past does not always predict the future, I do think we need to watch out for the possibility of some arctic air this winter. Of course, the big question is always snow...all I can say is, arctic air is step one in having a chance in the first place! We still need an upper-level low to drift by while it is cold enough to snow and those odds are always low. More often than not, we get freezing drizzle. BTW, just because I am predicting a couple of arctic fronts, does not mean I am predicting another event like 2021. While it could occur, I'm merely calling for some arctic air (or polar vortex) that will send our temps into the teens or 20's at night and 30-40's during the day.

So, there you have it... average precipitation with a few severe storm outbreaks that could add up to above normal rainfall for a few rain lottery winners and milder than normal temperatures with a chance for a couple of arctic outbreaks. Unfortunately, I don't see enough rain to clear up the rest of our drought regions, but hopefully it won't grow much over the winter either.

Mark