La Niña is on the way…

3-19-24 10am. This El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch update is brought to you by Bahia Services and Rentals in Port O'Connor, TX https://www.facebook.com/BahiaServicesandRentals

Happy Vernal Equinox!

This report came out last Thursday, but with all of the weather going on last week, I wanted to wait until things calmed down a bit. As of now, it appears that we will transition into La Niña by this summer, which may not be bad, based on what happened last summer during a strong El Niño pattern. El Niño almost eliminated any tropical systems for us and lead to a horrific summer. While La Niña will not bode well for next winter, I'm hoping that it will lead to more tropical activity this summer and better chances for summer rain. Typically, there are more Atlantic tropical systems during La Niña and fewer during El Niño.

Here is part of the ENSO Alert report: "The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024. While different types of models suggest La Niña will develop, the forecast team favors the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate for forecasts made during this time of year. Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events. In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance)."

Mark

This El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch update is brought to you by Bahia Services and Rentals in Port O'Connor, TX https://www.facebook.com/BahiaServicesandRentals