Could ENSO Neutral conditions mean better odds for a Texas hurricane this year?

2-26-24. 2:30pm. This Update is brought to you by Bahia Services and Rentals in Port O'Connor, TX https://www.facebook.com/BahiaServicesandRentals Rentals including Trash Dumpsters, Portable Toilets/Restroom Trailers, Hand Washing/Sanitizing Stations as well as Generators, Light Towers, Cooling-Warming Stations, and other rental equipment.

A fog flushing front moves through tonight, cooling us down a little (60’s and 70’s tomorrow) and getting rid of our foggy mornings for the near future. We may see a slight chance for rain next week, but the odds are not looking good as of post time.

While doing some online research on hurricanes during ENSO Neutral Conditions (not El Nino or La Nina), I came across a really interesting research paper that was done in 2008 by Anthony Ortiz Rodríguez and Douglas A. Butts, Jr., “An Examination of the Impact of ENSO Phases on Gulf Coast Tropical Cyclones”.

First, let’s review the latest ENSO forecast…as of two weeks ago, the CPC thinks we will be moving out of La Niña conditions into a Neutral pattern by May…see graphic below.

Now, let’s dive into the research that Rodríguez and Butts, Jr. did back in 2008. While none of us wants to see destruction from a hurricane, with several years of drought, a hurricane or tropical storm may be our only chance to receive some lake filling rainfall totals.

Here are some excerpts from their research:

5.1. Texas Since 1950, the Texas region was affected by 16 named tropical cyclones. Most (37.5%) of these tropical systems made landfall during the neutral phase, with 31.25% of the systems making landfall during the cold phase, and 18.75% during the warm phase. This information can be seen in Figure 11.

Most of the tropical cyclones (43.75%) that have affected South Texas originated in the South Gulf of Mexico. The Central Gulf of Mexico,Caribbean Sea and Southwest Atlantic were tied, and served as the source for 12.5% of named tropical cyclones. No tropical cyclones formed in the East Gulf for this study region (Figure 12).

6. CONCLUSION

Hazards from tropical cyclones impact many people along the United States coastline each year. Along the coastal areas of South Texas, 16 such storms have made landfall since 1950. This research paper started as an effort by the National Weather Service in Brownsville to understand what, if any, correlation exists between landfalling tropical cyclones and ENSO phases in their weather forecast area.

There appears to be some relationship between ENSO phase and the occurrence of landfalling tropical cyclones in these two regions. These results were confirmed using a chi-square goodness-of-fit test (at the 95% confidence interval) upon rejection of the null hypotheses.

Tropical cyclones appear to occur most frequently in the neutral ENSO phase (Figs. 9 and 11). This is contrary to other studies, which show that the La Niña, or cold phase of ENSO, has the highest number of landfalling systems. As Gray (1994) concluded, this seems to be due to strong westerly winds creating an increased amount of vertical wind shear. Given these preliminary results, it appears that knowing the ENSO phase could assist people in the coastal areas of South Texas in annual hurricane season preparations. The results presented in this paper will continue to be refined in future studies.