The models are messing with us!
12-1-24. 3:50pm. This Update is brought to you by Bahia Services and Rentals in Port O'Connor, TX https://www.facebook.com/BahiaServicesandRentals
Well, based on the latest model runs, our odds for meaningful rain through Wednesday, except for right along the coast and southern coastal plains have almost gone “poof”. Looks like we will have to wait for our next front to arrive on Thursday, to give us our better odds for precipitation as the cool air gets overridden by moist air aloft from the SW. Below are the latest model runs, but as you can see, there is certainly no consensus as of today.
The latest CPC December outlook is out, and it’s forecasting almost 50/50 odds for above average rainfall, especially in south Texas. I’ve also included the latest CFS long-range forecast, which is more bullish for rain than the CPC outlook. I personally think December will be a decent rain month for us.
I’ve also included the latest drought update and how we did in November. While a few lucky counties did well, most of south and south-central Texas saw below normal rainfall, but still more than October!
Mark
This Update is brought to you by Bahia Services and Rentals in Port O'Connor, TX https://www.facebook.com/BahiaServicesandRentals
Thursday's front will give us a chance for rain from Thursday-Sunday.
How much rain the latest models think will fall between Monday and Sunday. Click on images to see them larger.
The latest drought update and November totals. Click on images to see them larger.
The December outlook from the CPC
December anomaly for rain forecast from the CFS model.
