Welcome to “La Nada”!

4-11-25. 3:40pm This ENSO update is brought to you by Synergy Standby Solutions. Synergy Standby Solutions is a trusted provider of sales, maintenance, repairs, and fueling services for standby generators in South Central Texas. We specialize in ensuring your backup power systems remain reliable and fully operational, giving you peace of mind during power outages. With a commitment to excellence and customer satisfaction, our expert team is ready to handle all your generator needs. Learn more at www.synergystandby.com.

We are officially in "La Nada"...or what is probably more scientifically know as ENSO-Neutral. From the CPC: “ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a greater than 50% chance through August-October 2025.”

I'll do some research on past La Nada late spring and summer rainfall impacts in the next few days but based on a study that I posted about a month ago, it could give Texas a higher probability of tropical storms and hurricanes. From the study: "Since 1950, the Texas region was affected by 16 named tropical cyclones. Most (37.5%) of these tropical systems made landfall during the neutral phase, with 31.25% of the systems making landfall during the cold phase, and 18.75% during the warm phase.”

Here is the link to the study I'm referring to: https://www.weather.gov/media/bro/research/pdf/ElNinoGulfCoastTC_OrtizButts.pdf

The study was conducted in 2008. Since then, during La Nada, we have seen Hurricane Ingrid (impacted far south Texas in 2013), Dolly in 2014 (Mexico, but impacted south Texas), Cindy and Harvey in 2017 and Hanna, Laura and TS Beta in 2020.

Another interesting thing about “La Nada”, is that both the Pacific and Atlantic have the potential to see above normal tropical activity, instead of one or the other. This could have a very positive impact on the SW monsoon, which includes the Big Bend and far west Texas…both areas are under a severe drought right now.

As for us, more of the same for at least a week. Models and the 8-14day outlook from the CPC continue to forecast a wet last two weeks of April…more on that tomorrow.

Mark