It’s Showtime!

1-5-24. 3:30pm. This Update is brought to you by Bahia Services and Rentals in Port O'Connor, TX https://www.facebook.com/BahiaServicesandRentals

A Pacific front has moved through south-central Texas (more like a dryline) and the big bad cold front is on its heels, zooming through the Hill Country as I work on this post. Temperatures ahead of the front are in the 70’s, 80’s and even some 90’s in south Texas. Behind the second front, temperatures are in the 50’s in the Hill Country and will be dropping quickly tonight below freezing. Wind chill values will be in the teens over south-central Texas and the 20’s in south Texas by sunrise. Monday’s highs will struggle to get out of the 40’s even under mostly clear skies. We’ll see another freeze on Tuesday morning with lows in the 20’s and 30’s for most areas.

The best odds for seeing snow flurries and snow, will be on Wednesday night, as moisture starts streaming in from the west, thanks to a Baja low over Mexico. The air aloft will be around or below freezing along and north of a line from Del Rio to San Antonio. As we move into Thursday, the air aloft rises above freezing, so rain and possibly freezing rain (mainly Hill Country and Austin) will be most likely on Thursday and Friday. There is a slight chance for colder air aloft to move in again on Thursday night, so snow is not out of the question for areas along and north of HWY 90. At this point, surface temperatures will struggle to rise above the 30’s from Wednesday night through Friday morning. I still think there is a chance that some locations in the Hill Country may be below freezing from late Wednesday-Friday morning.

For now, the most positive part of the forecast in my opinion is the chance for precipitation, no matter what form it takes (although ice really sucks). Models continue to forecast 1/4 of an inch in far western counties to over an inch in the eastern counties from Wednesday night through Friday.

Below are the latest model runs and info from the SA-Austin NWS. Their forecast lows are pretty much what the average of the models are predicting, but a few degrees difference in lows, could make a big difference in whether we are dealing with ice on Thursday and Friday morning. As I have mentioned, it never hurts to overprepare, but please leave a few rolls of toilet paper and some bottled water for others!

Mark