Rains are shifting SE of San Antonio…

7-23-24. 2:35pm. This Update is brought to you by 5E Trailers in Marion. They’re here to help you find the perfect trailer at the best price! https://www.5etrailers.com/

Hard to know where to start this afternoon! There is currently a flood warning for the Guadalupe River in Hunt...something we have not seen in a long time. Storms in the Hill Country are starting wind down and I think we are starting to see the activity shifting to the east, south and SE of HWY 90 and I-10 East to a Houston line. I know that you guys living to the south of HWY 90 have for the most part, seen little to any of the big rains that have fallen to the north of you. While I do think you will see some rain over the next 48 hours, your totals will not be those of the Hill Country. Models have never been as bullish for your area, even a few days ago. I am hoping you all get at least 1/2-1 inches of rain. For the coastal plains and SE, your odds look very good for seeing 1-3 inches of rain and potentially more through the weekend.

Here is the latest Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion from the NWS.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0707
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
100 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast TX...Western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

SUMMARY...Scattered instances of flash flooding will be likely
from pockets of heavy showers and thunderstorms going through the afternoon and early evening hours.
Portions of south-central TX involving the Hill Country remain
quite sensitive due to recent and/or ongoing areas of heavy rain,
and will tend to be most susceptible to additional flash flooding
concerns in the near-term. However, areas farther east into the
southeast TX coastal plain that are drier by comparison will also
eventually see convection with sufficiently high rates that
scattered instances of flash flooding (especially within the urban
corridors) will become a concern.

Below are the latest model runs for rainfall through Sunday and well as 12hr rainfall totals from today.

Mark