A good chance for some big rain totals in the next 24 hours!

3-16-24 3:15pm. This update is brought to you by 5E Trailers in Marion. They’re here to help you find the perfect trailer at the best price! https://www.5etrailers.com/

After what happened (or didn't happen) yesterday, I can see why many of you don't want to believe that there is a great chance for storms tonight and tomorrow. This is a different scenario, with a robust shortwave (disturbance) heading this way from Mexico via the cut-off low in western Arizona. Not only is there a good chance for rain, but some of the storms could become severe, with large hail and high winds the main threat. As always please tune into your local NOAA weather radio or emergency apps to stay up on any warnings for where you are. The activity should start crossing the border around 10pm.

From the NWS: "While the initial threat will be severe storms there is some signals in the latest high-res guidance for this to become a locally heavy rainfall threat. Latest mean values for QPF with both the NBM and HREF are near 1-2 inches for a large portion of the area with 90th percentile values representing a reasonable worse-case scenario near 4 inches for southern areas. If the isolated 4 inches does occur then some flooding would be a concern and will message that possibility.

Storms will be more scattered on Sunday, then a lull in the action until late Wednesday-Thursday of next week.

Below are the details from our NWS, simulated radar from the HRRR model and lots of model runs.

Mark