Update plus the results from my April summer forecast.

10-1-24. 2:45pm. This Update is brought to you by Davy Ranch Supply in Yorktown, TX. davyranchsupply.com

I mentioned yesterday that I would dissect my summer forecast from mid-April and I will do so!

Continued highs in the 90's and lows in the upper 50's for the Hill Country and mainly 60's for everyone else. By Thursday, dew points will rise as onshore flow from the Gulf comes back, lifting our lows into the upper 60's and low 70's. A disturbance in the Gulf will send some showers and thunderstorms into the coast and coastal plains over the weekend. How far west these storms go is still debatable, with the GFS model the most bullish on rain moving into south-central Texas than the other models. As far as a decent front goes, I'm still not seeing anything in the next 7-10 days.

OK, now let's see how I did with my mid-April summer forecast!

Here's the link to the complete forecast:

https://www.marklangfordsweatherpage.com/blog/pr96gmvcgtfas2hloy1egspz6lenzb

1. This isn't too relevant since the forecast was all about the summer.

2. I did really well for my June tropical forecast, with three named storms (Alberto, Beryl and Chris). I was correct about July being inactive for storms but for the most part, so was August. I really thought we would get a tropical something by August or September, but that did not pan out for Texas, which may have been a good thing, seeing how much damage Helene did!

3. So far, the Atlantic Hurricane season has been below normal for named storms, but I was right about a Cat 4 hurricane happening. We still have two months ahead, so I'm not giving up yet on my prediction for a very active season.

4. I did pretty well on my overall temperature forecast, even with a very warm September. Most of our area averaged normal to slightly above normal from June-September.

5. The drought has eroded since April as I predicted, but rainfall totals over the summer have been a mixed bag. While parts of the Hill Country, extreme south Texas and the far eastern sections of south-central Texas saw above normal rainfall, a zone along I-35 from Austin to San Antonio, and counties to the west and east, has seen below normal rainfall. In my mind, the main reason for this deficit is how the tropical systems have tracked, leaving this area high and dry.