Pretty much nailed my monsoon forecast!

9-30-24: As we wrap up our monsoon season, I thought I would see how my predictions went for July-September, when I posted my forecast back in mid-May for Pagosa Springs, CO, where I live.

For starters, here is my post of predictions for the monsoon:

https://www.marklangfordsweatherpage.com/.../sql68hx70q5f...

And here is how we ended up:

1. I predicted an active Atlantic hurricane season. So far that prediction has been below the forecast, but we still have the rest of October and November to boost the total storms.

2. I predicted normal-slightly above normal temps for our monsoon...that was pretty much spot on, with our average overall temperatures being 1 degree above normal.

3. I predicted slightly above normal monsoon rainfall for Pagosa Springs. The normal is 6.25 inches and when you take all 21 COCORAHS reporting stations in the county, the average was right at 8.12 inches through the 29th of September. My rainfall guess was 8.25 inches. At our home, just NW of town, we were the monsoon rainfall winners with 9.97 inches. As I mentioned on my forecast post, my rainfall prediction went totally against the long-range forecasts at the time for a below normal monsoon season.

                              COCORAHS rainfall totals from July 1st through September 29th.

Percentage of normal rainfall was slightly above average for Archuletta County in CO.

Percentage of normal temperatures was slightly above average for Archuletta County in CO.