Let’s look at ensembles for a change!
11-24-24. 2:45pm. This update is brought to you by Dietz-McLean Optical. www.dmoptical.com
No change in this week’s forecast, so let’s dive into the last couple of days of November and the first week of December. After so many “above normal” temperature days, you’ll be happy to know that starting on Thanksgiving, we will slide into at least a week of “below normal” temperatures with several more fronts moving through during that time. It’s possible around the 4th, we could even see some widespread freezes, but it’s still too far out to make that call as of today.
Rain chances will also be entering the picture by the first week of December. Being this far out, I’m going with a different set of models than usual…I’m posting “Ensemble Models” instead of the usual deterministic models. The difference is that the ensemble models are the average of multiple model runs with slightly different data used for each model run. In my opinion, they can give us a more balanced outcome for long-range forecasts. I have posted an ensemble graphical forecast for San Antonio to give you an idea of what ensembles are all about.
Mark
This update is brought to you by Dietz-McLean Optical. www.dmoptical.com
The end of November and first week of December are looking colder than normal.
The latest 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show better than 50/50 odds for cooler than normal weather and above normal rainfall.
The latest ensemble model (multiple runs) forecast for rainfall through the 10th of December. Click on an image to see it larger.
A look under the hood of an ensemble model run for San Antonio. The top of the graphic shows 30 different runs and their outcomes. The lower graphic is the average of those runs.
