Bonus rain before Beryl!

7-6-24. 4:15pm. This Update is brought to you by Davy Ranch Supply in Yorktown, TX. davyranchsupply.com

Great to see a lot more activity on the radar than the models had forecast for this afternoon along a stationary from Del Rio to San Antonio to Houston. Some locations in the Hill Country have already recorded over an inch of rain and these storms should last until sunset.

Although a bit on the trite side, all eyes on the Gulf where Tropical Storm Beryl is getting its act back together after being slapped around by the Yucatan and some wind shear. The latest update shows that Beryl’s sustained winds have grown to 60 mph this afternoon and it is forecast to turn back into a hurricane by tomorrow before moving onshore on Monday. The track has shifted even further east, moving the best rain odds along with it. Is it just me or does it seem like the models are often wrong for rain forecasts west of I-10, but rarely get it wrong east of I-10! For days, this looked like a no brainer, with Beryl forecast to move up the Rio Grande, then “poof”, all models moved it east and they continue to do so.

Going forward, please tune into your local broadcast media, weather apps and NOAA weather radio for warnings and evacuations for your area. As a one-man band, I can only keep up with general watches and warnings.

Anyhow, below are the latest greatest model runs and updates from the NHC. For some reason the Euro model did not update at 12z.

If you have some rain totals from today’s storms, please feel free to share them!

Mark