Thoughts from your Admin!

6-21-24
Over the past week, with the excitement and for some of you, and the disappointment of how the models handled Alberto, I thought I'd share a few thoughts with you guys.

I know the NWS does not like social media to share model runs, but part of what I like about having this page, is allowing all of us to become amateur weather people and see some of the same information that the pros use to make their forecasts. As we saw this week, even the NWS predicted more rain early on than eventually fell in south-central Texas. They adjusted their figures downward as the event neared, but they were as fooled as most of us with the models that continued to show some huge rains over south-central Texas. For south Texas, the numbers were closer to what many of the models were forecasting, but even your totals were lower that what was forecast. Most of the models did not see the high pressure moving in as quickly as it did from the NE. Had this held off a couple more days, we could have seen some of the huge rainfall totals that models even 3 days out were predicting.

On the other hand, I remember the models going crazy with huge forecast rainfall totals for Hurricane Harvey. Most people thought that 20-40 inches being forecast in some model runs was impossible! Unfortunately, most of the models ended up being correct and we saw the eventual flood devastation in SE Texas.

I will always remind everyone that models over 3-5 days should be taken with a grain of salt and a shot of Tequila. Yes, I'm attempting to be funny, but there is a lot of truth to using long-range models as only a guide, not what will necessarily pan out. My way of explaining long-range models is this: If you see something moving in a field about 500 yards away, you will likely not know if it is a deer, coyote, calf, mountain lion or a bear (in the mountains). That's what long-range models are like. As you get closer or grab a pair of binoculars, you will eventually find out what that moving object is...which is why I wear a brightly colored vest when hiking during deer season! As we get closer to a rain event, most of the models begin doing better with their forecasts. As good as our computers and AI technology is, weather continues to be a very complicated part of physics. For me, this is what makes weather very fun to follow and study...you can never be totally sure what the outcome will be until it happens.

Speaking of that, I know some of you like to make predictions on what you think will happen when rain events are about to occur. I'm totally cool with that, and even welcome your forecasts, but please follow them with, "in my opinion" and perhaps tell us why you feel that way or other bit of weather info that made you come to your conclusion. The NWS does this twice a day when they publish their "Area Forecast Discussion", like this one from the SA-Austin NWS https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDEWX&e=202406211915 Also, if you do want to make predictions, understand that your comments are out there for the public and me to see and compare with the final outcome. I'm well aware of what it is like making a forecast! I am constantly evaluated and judged by all of you, and I know that I can get it right and sometimes get it wrong.

Anyhow, it's been a fun week and I hope we eventually get that tropical something that parks itself over the Hill Country for a few days and fills some lakes!

Mark

Your Admin!