A very interesting week ahead!

6-16-24. 1:45pm. This Tropical Update is brought to you by Dietz-McLean Optical. www.dmoptical.com

The NHC has just upped the odds for our tropical blob to become a tropical depression or storm by mid-week.

Models continue to forecast some hefty rain totals from Wednesday through Thursday, along with some wind gusts over 40mph for south and south-central Texas. It's still too many days to lock in on any of the models for what may become our final rain totals. Also, it looks like there may be more tropical moisture moving in by the end of the month.

Below is the latest discussion from the NHC:

A large area of disturbed weather is located over Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure is
forecast to form from this system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday or Tuesday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent gradual development of the low, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm could form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.

Regardless of development, several days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week. In addition, gale warnings have been issued
for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on these is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

FYI: I have jury duty tomorrow, so depending on whether I get picked, you may not see an update until tomorrow evening!