Drought-El Niño update.

4-12-24. 9:15am. This Drought-El Niño update is brought to you by Motor Carrier Safety Solutions in Laredo, TX. www.mcssinc.com

Let’s talk about our El Niño conditions first…based on the latest update from the CPC, we will be transitioning into a neutral pattern by next month, then La Niña by this summer.

From the CPC: “The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during late summer 2024. The forecast team continues to favor the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate than statistical models during this time of year. La Niña tends to follow strong El Niño events, which also provides added confidence in the model guidance favoring La Niña. In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance).

As I have mentioned before, transitioning into La Niña by this summer, will increase our odds for tropical disturbances and storms because during La Niña, the Atlantic is more active and the Pacific less active for tropical systems to develop.

Not much change in the drought conditions this week because the data cutoff for Drought Monitor maps is each Tuesday at 8 a.m. EDT. We continue to see improvement in the conditions this year, with the exception of six counties in the Hill Country.

Mark